The Daily Macro
Risk Pulse
Cross-asset regime analysis covering equities, commodities, rates, and crypto in one coherent view. Powered by a live systematic framework with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.
Macro & Crypto Regime Brief
Monthly Macro & Crypto Regime Brief
June confirmed the regime deterioration: inflation re-accelerated (CPI 4.2%, PCE 4.1%), the ECB hiked 25bp, and all four major central banks moved to or held a synchronized restrictive stance. BTC ETFs posted their worst monthly outflow since launch (~$4.5bn), BTC fell ~20% to $59k, and stablecoins contracted for the first time. The one structural bright spot was tokenized-equity infrastructure (+145% to $3.86bn). The regime is risk-off with structural pockets — macro cost of capital high, institutional crypto bid absent, but tokenization and stablecoin rails advancing independently.
Recent Editions
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
A bear-steepening curve (+5bps on 10Y, +5bps on 2Y with 99bp spread) colliding with a weakening dollar and surging oil creates a stagflationary micro-pulse that favors real assets over duration-sensitive tech.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
Equities grind higher on tech leadership while the steepening yield curve (+99bp 2s10s) and gold at $4,658 signal persistent macro uncertainty beneath the surface.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
Crypto is leading a broad risk rally with BTC up 10.6% on the week while equity vol compresses to 14.94 and the dollar languishes below 100, but rising long-end rates and a steepening curve warrant vigilance.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
A massive weekly crypto rally (+22-28% across majors) alongside rising equities, falling 10Y yields, and sub-16 VIX signals a powerful cross-asset risk-on impulse that may be approaching short-term exhaustion.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
Crypto is staging a powerful weekly rally led by altcoin beta, but fading equity momentum and a 100bp term premium steepening signal fiscal/duration risk that caps the sustainability of this risk-on impulse.
The systematic cross-asset intelligence layer for people who have to understand both traditional markets and digital assets.
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5 Years. 14,495 Trades. Every Regime.
Tested across bull markets, drawdowns, and recoveries. The system adapts, it does not rely on a single regime to perform.
| Period | Regime | Profit Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Bull | 1.23 |
| 2022 | Bear | 1.45 |
| 2023 | Recovery | 1.32 |
| 2024 | Mixed | 2.18 |
| 2025 | Volatile | 2.32 |
| 2026 YTD | Volatile | 2.32 |