The Daily Macro
Risk Pulse
Cross-asset regime analysis covering equities, commodities, rates, and crypto in one coherent view. Powered by a live systematic framework with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.
Macro & Crypto Regime Brief
Monthly Macro & Crypto Regime Brief
June confirmed the regime deterioration: inflation re-accelerated (CPI 4.2%, PCE 4.1%), the ECB hiked 25bp, and all four major central banks moved to or held a synchronized restrictive stance. BTC ETFs posted their worst monthly outflow since launch (~$4.5bn), BTC fell ~20% to $59k, and stablecoins contracted for the first time. The one structural bright spot was tokenized-equity infrastructure (+145% to $3.86bn). The regime is risk-off with structural pockets — macro cost of capital high, institutional crypto bid absent, but tokenization and stablecoin rails advancing independently.
Recent Editions
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
A weakening dollar and rallying gold signal growing unease with US fiscal sustainability even as equities grind higher on easing vol, creating a divergence that crypto is tentatively exploiting on the upside.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
Broad-based risk asset liquidation amid a violently steepening yield curve inversion unwind—with 10Y at 5.19% and 2Y at 4.09%—is driving correlated selloffs across equities, crypto, and oil while gold and the dollar diverge as competing safe havens.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
Macro assets are grinding in narrow ranges with suppressed vol, but the 116bp 2s10s steepening and 5.22% 10Y yield remain a structural headwind that crypto and duration-sensitive equities are quietly absorbing.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
Crypto alts are repricing sharply lower as the US 10Y yield sits at a punishing 5.24%, creating a gravitational drag on duration-sensitive and speculative assets despite equity indices holding near highs.
Daily Macro Risk Pulse
Equities and crypto are rallying into a dangerously steep term premium with the 10Y at 5.24%, creating a fragile risk-on that is one hot CPI or auction tail away from repricing.
The systematic cross-asset intelligence layer for people who have to understand both traditional markets and digital assets.
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5 Years. 14,495 Trades. Every Regime.
Tested across bull markets, drawdowns, and recoveries. The system adapts, it does not rely on a single regime to perform.
| Period | Regime | Profit Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Bull | 1.23 |
| 2022 | Bear | 1.45 |
| 2023 | Recovery | 1.32 |
| 2024 | Mixed | 2.18 |
| 2025 | Volatile | 2.32 |
| 2026 YTD | Volatile | 2.32 |