July 15, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Crypto is rallying into extreme fear while equities sell off and the yield curve steepens — a divergence that typically resolves violently in one direction within days.

BTC$64,594+3.2%

ETH$1,876+5.0%

SOL$77.38+3.1%

Fear & Greed25Extreme Fear

VIX16.28-5.1%

DXY100.99-0.3%

US 10Y4.610%+0.9%

Gold$4,038-0.6%

Oil (WTI)$80.10+1.0%

S&P 5007,515-0.8%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Rates Steepening Aggressively, 2s10s at +88bp

The 2s10s spread has widened to +88bp with 10Y at 4.61% (+0.88%) and 2Y at 3.73% (+0.89%), both backing up in tandem but from very different levels. This steep curve is pricing in persistent term premium or fiscal risk at the long end while the front end reflects expected cuts. For equities, the 10Y push toward 4.6%+ is a headwind — NDX down 1.55% confirms duration-sensitive tech is repricing. The DXY decline to 100.99 despite rising yields suggests foreign demand is the pressure point.

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