July 14, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Rising long-end yields (+0.88% to 4.61%), equity weakness (NDX -1.55%), crude surging (+3.37%), and crypto Fear & Greed at 22 (Extreme Fear) coalesce into a clear risk-off regime with stagflationary undertones.

BTC$62,608-0.7%

ETH$1,787+0.4%

SOL$75.02-1.6%

Fear & Greed22Extreme Fear

VIX17.31+0.9%

DXY101.10-0.2%

US 10Y4.610%+0.9%

Gold$4,026+0.7%

Oil (WTI)$80.77+3.4%

S&P 5007,515-0.8%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Bear Steepening Resurfaces as Stagflation Fears Build

The 10Y yield rose 0.88% to 4.61% while the 2Y moved a similar magnitude to 3.73%, keeping the 2s10s spread at roughly +88bp — a steep curve that reflects term premium expansion rather than rate-cut expectations. Concurrent oil surging 3.37% to $80.77 feeds the narrative that supply-side inflation is re-entering the picture just as growth softens. This is the worst combination for duration-sensitive tech: NDX shed 1.55%, validating the bear-steepener playbook. Portfolio implication: underweight long-duration equity and favor short-duration, cash-flow-rich positions.

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