July 13, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Equity indices grind higher into a steepening yield curve and rising VIX, while crypto languishes in fear territory — a classic late-cycle divergence that warrants reduced risk in long-duration digital assets.

BTC$63,019-1.3%

ETH$1,780-1.1%

SOL$76.23-0.7%

Fear & Greed28Fear

VIX16.26+8.2%

DXY100.92-0.1%

US 10Y4.570%+0.7%

Gold$4,076-0.7%

Oil (WTI)$73.46+2.9%

S&P 5007,575+0.4%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

VIX Jumps 8% While SPX Rallies — Hedging Demand Flashing

VIX surged 8.18% to 16.26 even as SPX gained 0.42% to 7,575 — a textbook divergence where options markets price rising tail risk that spot equities haven't yet acknowledged. This pattern historically precedes volatility expansion within 5-10 sessions. The implied vol bid likely reflects positioning ahead of earnings season and the 10Y grinding to 4.57%. For our book, this is a signal to harvest gamma rather than sell it.

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