October 12, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Equities and crypto are rallying into a dangerously steep term premium with the 10Y at 5.24%, creating a fragile risk-on that is one hot CPI or auction tail away from repricing.

BTC$83,464+0.6%

ETH$2,555+2.2%

SOL$111.48+1.9%

Fear & Greed69Greed

VIX15.49+4.4%

DXY102.37+0.2%

US 10Y5.240%+0.3%

Gold$4,200-0.4%

Oil (WTI)$92.79+1.0%

S&P 5007,812+0.6%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

10Y at 5.24% Is the Macro Elephant in the Room

The US10Y rose another 13bp to 5.24% with the 2s10s spread blowing out to +118bp — this is a textbook bear steepener driven by term premium, not growth optimism. Equities (SPX +0.59%, NDX +0.64%) are ignoring this signal for now, but historically every sustained push above 5% in the 10Y has forced a violent equity de-rating within weeks. The disconnect between rising long rates and rising risk assets is the single most important tension in markets today.

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