October 01, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

A bear-steepening yield curve with 10Y yields breaching 5.29% creates a gravitational drag on risk assets that crypto sentiment at 74 (Greed) is dangerously ignoring.

BTC$83,584-0.2%

ETH$2,685-0.3%

SOL$117.16-2.0%

Fear & Greed74Greed

VIX16.55+1.3%

DXY101.88+0.4%

US 10Y5.290%+0.7%

Gold$4,192+0.1%

Oil (WTI)$91.87+1.6%

S&P 5007,652-0.3%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

10Y at 5.29% Is the Macro Fulcrum

The US 10Y yield rose 0.72% to 5.29% while the 2Y fell 0.86% to 4.03%, producing a dramatic bear steepening with a +126bp spread. This pattern — long-end selling while the front-end rallies — signals the market is pricing in persistent term premium expansion, likely driven by fiscal concerns or sticky inflation expectations. At 5.29%, the 10Y is approaching the threshold where equity multiples face mechanical compression, particularly for long-duration tech. SPX at 7,651 dipped 0.25% but NDX holding +0.24% suggests the repricing hasn't fully transmitted yet.

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