September 30, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Persistent bear steepening with 10Y at 5.26% is the dominant macro signal, yet equities remain near highs and gold/oil are bid — a tension that resolves poorly for duration-sensitive risk assets.

BTC$83,765-0.4%

ETH$2,692-0.8%

SOL$119.51-0.1%

Fear & Greed71Greed

VIX16.05+0.1%

DXY101.19-0.2%

US 10Y5.260%+0.3%

Gold$4,217+0.9%

Oil (WTI)$90.39+1.1%

S&P 5007,671-0.2%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Bear Steepener Intensifies: 10Y Hits 5.26%

The 2s10s spread sits at +119bp with 10Y yields climbing another 1.5bp to 5.26% while 2Y rose to 4.07%. This bear steepening dynamic — driven by term premium expansion, not rate-cut repricing — represents the single most important macro headwind. At these levels, the equity risk premium on SPX at 7,671 is razor-thin, and any further backup in real yields directly compresses crypto and long-duration tech multiples. The market is tolerating this only because growth expectations remain resilient, but that complacency has limits.

Subscribe to read the full edition

Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

Pro$19/mo$179/year (save 21%)

Core$79/mo$790/year

Already subscribed?

Backed by a live system with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.

See a sample edition →

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclaimer →