September 25, 2026Risk-OnMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Broad crypto rally led by alts (+14-36% 7d) against a backdrop of equity calm and rising long-end yields signals risk appetite is front-running a liquidity or regulatory catalyst, but the 5.16% 10Y is a gravitational constraint that demands respect.

BTC$84,647+1.7%

ETH$2,709+2.7%

SOL$118.76+5.0%

Fear & Greed71Greed

VIX15.33-2.2%

DXY101.05-0.2%

US 10Y5.160%+0.9%

Gold$4,341+1.0%

Oil (WTI)$92.83-1.9%

S&P 5007,704-0.0%

RegimeRisk-On

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

10Y at 5.16% Is the Elephant in the Room

The US 10Y rose another ~5bps to 5.16%, with the 2s10s spread steepening to +109bps — a bear-steepening regime that historically pressures equity multiples and risk assets. Yet SPX sits at 7,704 essentially flat and VIX is declining to 15.33. This divergence is unsustainable: either yields need to roll over to validate current equity levels, or equities reprice lower. The term premium expansion suggests the bond market is pricing fiscal risk or stickier-than-expected growth, neither of which are unambiguously risk-on.

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