September 24, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

A sharp repricing in long-end rates (10Y at 5.11%, +3%) is triggering a correlated de-risking across equities, crypto, and gold, with only oil and the dollar bid — classic duration-shock risk-off.

BTC$83,227-3.0%

ETH$2,636-3.5%

SOL$112.96-3.6%

Fear & Greed71Greed

VIX16.32+7.5%

DXY101.28+0.2%

US 10Y5.110%+3.0%

Gold$4,286-0.8%

Oil (WTI)$93.22+1.1%

S&P 5007,706-0.8%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

10Y Yield Spikes to 5.11%, Repricing Everything

The US 10-year yield surged 3.04% to 5.11% — a psychologically critical level that challenges equity risk premia and leveraged crypto positioning simultaneously. The 2s10s spread has steepened to +108bp (4.03% vs 5.11%), signaling the market is pricing in either persistent inflation or a term premium repricing rather than imminent recession. At these yield levels, the equity-bond correlation remains positive, removing the traditional portfolio hedge and forcing systematic de-risking across all duration-sensitive assets.

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