September 23, 2026Risk-OnHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

A broad-based risk rally across equities and crypto, fueled by a VIX collapse to 14.17 and falling long-end yields, is now entering crowding territory with the Fear & Greed Index at 71 and 7-day crypto returns stretching +13-59%.

BTC$85,725-0.1%

ETH$2,730-0.3%

SOL$117.17+0.5%

Fear & Greed71Greed

VIX14.17-4.7%

DXY100.86+0.4%

US 10Y4.960%-0.7%

Gold$4,354-0.5%

Oil (WTI)$89.49-5.4%

S&P 5007,765+1.5%

RegimeRisk-On

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Yield Curve Steepening Signals Easing Expectations Accelerating

The 2s10s spread has widened to +98bp (10Y at 4.96%, 2Y at 3.98%), with the long end rallying 70bp on the session while the short end barely moved (+0.10%). This aggressive bull steepening suggests the market is pricing deeper rate cuts ahead while acknowledging sticky term premium. For risk assets this is the sweet spot — liquidity expectations improving without a crisis bid — but 10Y at 4.96% still represents a gravitational ceiling for equity multiples, particularly growth/duration.

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Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
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