September 22, 2026Risk-OnHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Broad-based risk rally with NDX +2.3%, VIX sub-15, and crypto Fear & Greed at 78 signals aggressive positioning into risk assets — but oil's -6.3% collapse and a near-100bp 2s10s steepener at +98bps warrant vigilance on growth expectations.

BTC$85,883+1.7%

ETH$2,741+1.0%

SOL$116.62+0.7%

Fear & Greed78Extreme Greed

VIX14.82-0.3%

DXY100.39-0.0%

US 10Y4.960%-0.7%

Gold$4,367-0.4%

Oil (WTI)$89.74-6.3%

S&P 5007,765+1.5%

RegimeRisk-On

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Yield Curve Steepening to +98bps Signals Regime Shift

The 2s10s spread has blown out to +98bps (US10Y 4.96% vs US02Y 3.98%), an extraordinary steepening that historically accompanies either aggressive Fed easing at the front end or term premium repricing at the long end. With 2Y yields grinding higher at 3.98% (+0.10%), this is a bear steepener driven by long-end selling — the market is pricing either persistent fiscal deficits or reflation risk. For crypto, this steepening has historically been constructive as it reflects easing financial conditions at the short end, but 10Y approaching 5% is a gravitational threat to all duration-sensitive assets.

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