September 21, 2026Risk-OnMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Broad crypto rally led by high-beta alts and a steepening yield curve suggest risk appetite is surging despite 5% 10Y yields and a sharp crude correction that signals demand-side macro fragility.

BTC$84,538+5.3%

ETH$2,718+5.6%

SOL$115.75+7.1%

Fear & Greed70Greed

VIX14.89+0.5%

DXY100.30+0.1%

US 10Y5.000%+1.0%

Gold$4,391-0.8%

Oil (WTI)$93.14-7.1%

S&P 5007,651+0.2%

RegimeRisk-On

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

10Y Breaches 5% as Curve Steepens to +102bp

The US10Y hit 5.00% (+1.03% on the day) while the 2Y holds at 3.98%, producing a 102bp positive slope — a dramatic steepening that implies the market is pricing either sustained nominal growth or fiscal premium. This is the critical macro variable: equities and crypto are currently ignoring the term premium repricing, but historically a 5-handle on the 10Y becomes a gravitational drag on duration-sensitive assets. The divergence between SPX grinding to 7,650 and rising long rates is unsustainable — one of these moves is wrong.

Subscribe to read the full edition

Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

Pro$19/mo$179/year (save 21%)

Core$79/mo$790/year

Already subscribed?

Backed by a live system with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.

See a sample edition →

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclaimer →