September 15, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

The 2s10s curve steepening to +103bp with oil surging above $103 and equities softening signals a stagflationary impulse that is pressuring both risk assets and duration simultaneously.

BTC$76,930-1.3%

ETH$2,475-1.6%

SOL$100.75-1.0%

Fear & Greed69Greed

VIX17.42+1.9%

DXY99.61+0.1%

US 10Y4.960%-0.3%

Gold$4,312-0.9%

Oil (WTI)$103.58+2.2%

S&P 5007,620-0.5%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Yield Curve Screams Stagflation as 2s10s Hits +103bp

The US10Y at 4.96% (-0.28%) versus US02Y at 3.93% (+0.56%) produces a steep +103bp 2s10s spread — the front end is pricing rate cuts while the long end refuses to rally, a classic stagflationary configuration. The 2Y rising 0.56% today suggests the market is repricing near-term Fed patience even as growth concerns build. This bear-steepening dynamic is toxic for long-duration assets including tech equities and crypto, and explains the synchronized selloff across NDX (-0.56%) and BTC (-1.28%).

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