September 11, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

The 109bp 2s10s steepening with 10Y yields pressing 5% is repricing term premium aggressively, pressuring duration-sensitive assets across equities and crypto simultaneously.

BTC$77,030-1.2%

ETH$2,465-0.1%

SOL$99.41-1.7%

Fear & Greed56Greed

VIX17.19-3.6%

DXY99.16+0.1%

US 10Y4.940%+2.2%

Gold$4,392+0.6%

Oil (WTI)$99.07-3.3%

S&P 5007,592-0.6%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

10Y at 4.94% Is the Macro Gravity Well

The US 10Y rose 2.21% on the day to 4.94%, flirting with the psychologically critical 5% level. The 2s10s spread has blown out to +109bp (3.85% vs 4.94%), signaling the bond market is demanding significant term premium — a structural headwind for all long-duration assets. SPX fell 0.58% and NDX dropped 0.65% despite VIX actually declining 3.64% to 17.19, suggesting this is an orderly re-rating rather than a panic, which makes it more durable and harder to fade.

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