August 25, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Crypto is staging a powerful weekly rally led by altcoin beta, but fading equity momentum and a 100bp term premium steepening signal fiscal/duration risk that caps the sustainability of this risk-on impulse.

BTC$79,280+1.8%

ETH$2,476+0.0%

SOL$99.59+5.0%

Fear & Greed74Greed

VIX15.87+0.1%

DXY99.02+0.0%

US 10Y4.700%-0.7%

Gold$4,693+1.1%

Oil (WTI)$82.47-3.0%

S&P 5007,653-0.3%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

100bp Yield Curve Steepening Screams Duration Risk

The US 2s10s spread sits at +100bp (4.70% vs 3.70%), a significant positive steepening that reflects either term premium repricing or fiscal supply concerns rather than a benign easing cycle. The 10Y at 4.70% even as 2Y drifts lower suggests the market is pricing Fed cuts at the front end but demanding compensation for duration risk at the back end. This configuration historically pressures growth equity multiples — consistent with NDX printing -0.76% today — while supporting real assets like gold, which is ripping to $4,692 (+1.12%).

Subscribe to read the full edition

Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

Pro$19/mo$179/year (save 21%)

Core$79/mo$790/year

Already subscribed?

Backed by a live system with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.

See a sample edition →

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclaimer →