August 18, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

A steepening yield curve (+100bps 2s10s spread) with VIX spiking 12% signals the bond market is pricing a reflationary impulse that equities and crypto have not yet fully digested.

BTC$64,089+1.2%

ETH$1,894+0.1%

SOL$75.75+0.6%

Fear & Greed41Fear

VIX15.93+11.8%

DXY99.64-0.0%

US 10Y4.700%+1.2%

Gold$4,451+0.8%

Oil (WTI)$84.33-0.2%

S&P 5007,786-0.2%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Yield Curve Steepening Accelerates to 100bps

The 2s10s spread has widened to +100bps with US10Y at 4.70% (+1.2% on the day) while US02Y holds at 3.70% (-0.2%). This aggressive bear steepening — long rates rising while the front end anchors — reflects term premium repricing and growing fiscal/supply concerns. For risk assets, the 4.70% 10Y is approaching the 4.75-5.00% pain threshold that historically triggers multiple compression in growth equities. This is the single most important variable for portfolio construction right now.

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