August 13, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Equities and gold are grinding higher while crypto languishes in fear territory at 29, signaling a macro-crypto divergence that typically resolves with either a crypto catch-up bid or an equity correction within 2-4 weeks.

BTC$63,573-0.7%

ETH$1,884-1.4%

SOL$75.78-1.2%

Fear & Greed29Fear

VIX14.61+0.4%

DXY99.89-0.1%

US 10Y4.680%-0.0%

Gold$4,443+0.8%

Oil (WTI)$82.03-1.5%

S&P 5007,749+0.3%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Yield Curve Steepening Accelerates as 2s10s Blows Out

The 2Y at 3.71% (-0.62%) is falling sharply relative to the 10Y at 4.68% (-0.04%), pushing the 2s10s spread to +97bps — a dramatic steepening. This is consistent with the market pricing aggressive near-term Fed easing while keeping term premium elevated on fiscal and supply concerns. The velocity of 2Y decline suggests the rates market is front-running a dovish pivot that equities have already partially discounted at SPX 7,748. For crypto, this rate-cutting expectation should be structurally supportive, yet BTC at $63,573 (-0.70%) is failing to respond, suggesting positioning or structural headwinds are overriding the macro tailwind.

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