August 04, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Equities grind higher on tech leadership while the bond market flashes a warning with 10Y yields jumping to 4.74%, and crypto sentiment remains stuck in Extreme Fear despite BTC's modest bounce — a rare divergence that demands resolution.

BTC$63,441+1.2%

ETH$1,855+0.5%

SOL$73.09+0.7%

Fear & Greed25Extreme Fear

VIX15.72-1.7%

DXY100.02+0.2%

US 10Y4.740%+1.8%

Gold$4,104+1.4%

Oil (WTI)$81.75-3.5%

S&P 5007,490+0.7%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

10Y Yield Surge to 4.74% Is the Key Signal

The 10Y rose +1.76% to 4.74% while the 2Y barely moved at 3.68% (+0.19%), steepening the 2s10s spread to a notably positive 106bp. This bear steepening pattern — long-end selling off while the front-end stays anchored — signals the market is repricing term premium or fiscal risk, not Fed policy. If 10Y pushes through 4.80%, the equity bid evaporates quickly, particularly for duration-sensitive growth names in NDX.

Subscribe to read the full edition

Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

Pro$19/mo$179/year (save 21%)

Core$79/mo$790/year

Already subscribed?

Backed by a live system with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.

See a sample edition →

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclaimer →