July 24, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Rising long-end rates are pressuring duration assets across the board — equities, crypto, and oil selling off simultaneously while gold and the dollar diverge, signaling a stagflationary undercurrent.

BTC$64,965-1.1%

ETH$1,885-2.2%

SOL$75.51-2.8%

Fear & Greed28Fear

VIX18.78+0.4%

DXY101.35-0.1%

US 10Y4.700%+1.0%

Gold$4,062+0.4%

Oil (WTI)$89.69-2.7%

S&P 5007,408-1.2%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Bear Steepening Drives Broad Risk Asset Liquidation

The US10Y rose ~5bp to 4.70% while the 2Y climbed to 3.80% (+1.47%), widening the 2s10s spread to +90bp in a classic bear steepening pattern. This is the most pernicious move for risk assets — the long end repricing higher on term premium or fiscal concerns rather than growth expectations. NDX down 2.15% and BTC down 1.14% confirm duration-sensitive assets are bearing the brunt. A 10Y above 4.75% likely triggers another wave of systematic selling.

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Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
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