July 10, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Equities and crypto rally in tandem on falling yields and a weakening dollar, yet crypto Fear & Greed at 23 (Extreme Fear) signals positioning remains deeply skeptical of the move — a classic setup for a short-squeeze extension.

BTC$64,326+2.4%

ETH$1,797+2.6%

SOL$79.44+1.9%

Fear & Greed23Extreme Fear

VIX15.94+0.6%

DXY100.85-0.1%

US 10Y4.540%-0.7%

Gold$4,116-0.3%

Oil (WTI)$71.99-0.1%

S&P 5007,544+0.8%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Rates Rally Hard, 2Y Down 4bps Signals Dovish Repricing

The 2-year yield fell 1.10% to 3.68% while the 10-year dropped 0.66% to 4.54%, steepening the curve further with the 2s10s spread now at +86bps. This aggressive front-end rally suggests markets are pulling forward rate cut expectations. The move is enabling risk assets broadly — NDX +1.30%, BTC +2.4% — and weakening the dollar (DXY -0.09% to 100.85). If the 2Y breaches 3.60%, expect another leg in duration-sensitive assets.

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