July 09, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Crypto's extreme fear (22) amid a gently bid equity tape and rising gold suggests digital assets are pricing idiosyncratic deleveraging risk, not a broader macro deterioration.

BTC$62,834+1.3%

ETH$1,751+0.8%

SOL$77.94+1.0%

Fear & Greed22Extreme Fear

VIX16.86-0.2%

DXY100.97-0.1%

US 10Y4.570%+0.9%

Gold$4,114+1.1%

Oil (WTI)$73.63+0.1%

S&P 5007,483-0.3%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Rates Bear-Steepening Signals Fiscal Premium Repricing

US10Y rose +0.88% to 4.57% while US02Y held flat at 3.72%, pushing the 2s10s spread to +85bp — a steep positive slope that reflects term premium expansion rather than growth optimism. This bear-steepening pattern pressures duration-sensitive equities and risk assets. For crypto, higher real rates at the long end raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, partially explaining the disconnect between spot crypto weakness and relatively stable equities.

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