July 08, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

A sharp VIX spike to 18.66, crude oil surging 5.6%, and crypto Fear & Greed at 20 (Extreme Fear) signal a coordinated risk-off impulse driven by a stagflationary supply shock that is repricing duration and beta simultaneously.

BTC$62,031-2.0%

ETH$1,737-2.4%

SOL$77.20-5.0%

Fear & Greed20Extreme Fear

VIX18.66+15.7%

DXY101.13-0.0%

US 10Y4.530%+1.0%

Gold$4,061-2.0%

Oil (WTI)$74.36+5.6%

S&P 5007,504-0.5%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

VIX Jumps 16% as Rates Bear-Steepen on Oil Shock

VIX surged 15.7% to 18.66 while the 2s10s spread widened — 10Y up 4.4bps to 4.53% and 2Y up 5.7bps to 3.72% — reflecting a bear-steepening move consistent with fresh inflation supply-shock pricing. WTI crude's 5.6% rip to $74.36 is the likely catalyst, potentially geopolitical. This combination is toxic for long-duration tech (NDX -1.16%) and argues for reducing gross exposure until the energy shock is better understood.

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