July 02, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Crypto is staging a sharp tactical bounce into extreme fear (F&G 19) while equities soften and rates decline, suggesting a positioning-driven short squeeze rather than a durable risk-on rotation.

BTC$61,097+4.1%

ETH$1,643+4.4%

SOL$80.12+6.5%

Fear & Greed19Extreme Fear

VIX16.78+1.1%

DXY101.07-0.3%

US 10Y4.370%-0.5%

Gold$4,078+0.2%

Oil (WTI)$67.64-1.4%

S&P 5007,483-0.2%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Rates Decline Fuels Cross-Asset Divergence

US10Y fell 2bp to 4.37% and US02Y dropped to 3.66%, both down -0.46%, while the 2s10s spread holds at 71bp — consistent with markets pricing incrementally more easing or growth deceleration. The rate move is pulling DXY lower (-0.32% to 101.07) and supporting gold at $4,078, yet equities are not following: SPX -0.22% and NDX -0.66%. This divergence between falling rates and weak equities implies growth concern, not just dovish repricing.

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Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
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