July 01, 2026MixedHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Equities and crypto are diverging sharply — NDX rallies 1.5% while BTC bleeds 6% on the week with Fear & Greed at 11, signaling a liquidity rotation out of digital assets into mega-cap tech that historically precedes a broader risk repricing.

BTC$58,659-1.0%

ETH$1,573-0.5%

SOL$75.23+2.2%

Fear & Greed11Extreme Fear

VIX16.89+2.7%

DXY101.37+0.2%

US 10Y4.370%-0.5%

Gold$3,996-0.7%

Oil (WTI)$68.79-1.0%

S&P 5007,499+0.8%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Equity-Crypto Divergence Reaches Extreme Levels

NDX is up 1.52% today while BTC is down 6.1% on the week and ETH down 5.4%, creating one of the widest short-term divergences of 2026. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 11 (Extreme Fear) stands in stark contrast to VIX at a relatively complacent 16.89. This divergence suggests institutional capital is actively rotating from crypto into equity beta, likely driven by AI/tech earnings optimism. The disconnect is unsustainable — either equities catch down or crypto finds a floor.

Subscribe to read the full edition

Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

Pro$19/mo$179/year (save 21%)

Core$79/mo$790/year

Already subscribed?

Backed by a live system with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.

See a sample edition →

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclaimer →