May 20, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Oil's -5.08% collapse alongside 10-year yields surging +0.95% to 4.67% signals stagflation fears returning, while crypto's Fear/Greed at 27 confirms risk asset capitulation.

BTC$77,495+1.0%

ETH$2,131+0.8%

SOL$84.90+0.4%

Fear & Greed27Fear

VIX17.92-0.8%

DXY99.40+0.1%

US 10Y4.670%+0.9%

Gold$4,491-0.3%

Oil (WTI)$102.30-5.1%

S&P 5007,354-0.7%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Bond Vigilantes Return as US10Y Spikes to 4.67%

The 10-year treasury yield's +0.95% surge to 4.67% is the most aggressive single-day move in months, with the 2s10s curve steepening dramatically as the 2-year lags at only +0.20%. This violent steepening suggests either inflation concerns or debt sustainability fears are overwhelming Fed dovishness. Tech multiples face immediate compression risk at these yield levels.

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Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

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