May 12, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Oil's +3.25% surge amid rising rates (10Y +1.05% to 4.41%) creates stagflationary undertones while crypto consolidates with BTC holding $80K despite ETH weakness.

BTC$80,681-0.6%

ETH$2,289-2.1%

SOL$95.31-0.2%

Fear & Greed49Neutral

VIX18.85+2.6%

DXY98.25+0.3%

US 10Y4.410%+1.1%

Gold$4,709-0.2%

Oil (WTI)$101.26+3.3%

S&P 5007,413+0.2%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Oil Rally Pressures Fed Pivot Timeline

WTI crude's sharp +3.25% move to $101.26 alongside 10Y yields jumping 4.6bp to 4.41% signals renewed inflationary pressures. This combination threatens the Fed's dovish pivot narrative and could force more restrictive policy. Energy-driven inflation resurging just as the Fed considers cuts creates a macro headwind for risk assets.

Subscribe to read the full edition

Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

Pro$19/mo$179/year (save 21%)

Core$79/mo$790/year

Already subscribed?

Backed by a live system with a 2.32 profit factor across 37 instruments.

See a sample edition →

For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclaimer →