May 04, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Risk assets diverge as oil's +4.76% surge signals supply concerns while VIX spikes 10.48% despite modest equity gains, creating cross-asset tension.

BTC$78,419-0.0%

ETH$2,322+0.4%

SOL$83.46-0.6%

Fear & Greed40Fear

VIX18.77+10.5%

DXY98.47+0.3%

US 10Y4.380%-0.3%

Gold$4,548-1.8%

Oil (WTI)$106.79+4.8%

S&P 5007,230+0.3%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Oil Shock Dominates as Crude Surges 4.76%

Oil's massive 4.76% move to $106.79 signals acute supply disruption concerns, creating stagflation headwinds. This magnitude of energy price shock historically pressures margin compression in tech while benefiting energy infrastructure plays. The move dwarfs equity gains and suggests inflation expectations are repricing higher.

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