April 16, 2026MixedMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Risk assets rally despite extreme crypto fear as 10Y yield spike to 4.28% signals bond vigilante awakening ahead of key inflation data.

BTC$74,458+0.7%

ETH$2,336+0.9%

SOL$85.10+2.4%

Fear & Greed23Extreme Fear

VIX18.11-0.3%

DXY98.23+0.2%

US 10Y4.280%+0.6%

Gold$4,829+0.6%

Oil (WTI)$89.35-2.1%

S&P 5007,023+0.8%

RegimeMixed

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Bond Market Breaks Higher on Inflation Concerns

US10Y yield spiked 0.61% to 4.28% while 2Y remained flat at 3.61%, steepening the curve aggressively. This bear steepening suggests inflation expectations are rising faster than Fed policy expectations. Gold's +0.61% move confirms real rates aren't rising as fast as nominal rates, supporting our long duration short thesis.

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