April 13, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Oil's explosive +8.2% surge alongside VIX spike to 21.28 signals acute geopolitical stress, while crypto's -1.2% decline and Fear & Greed at 12 confirms broad risk-off rotation.

BTC$70,771-1.2%

ETH$2,184-1.4%

SOL$81.83-0.6%

Fear & Greed12Extreme Fear

VIX21.28+10.7%

DXY99.00+0.3%

US 10Y4.320%+0.6%

Gold$4,735-0.6%

Oil (WTI)$104.49+8.2%

S&P 5006,817-0.1%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Oil Shock Drives Stagflationary Repricing

WTI crude's +8.2% surge to $104.49 combined with 10Y yields rising 0.56% to 4.32% suggests markets are pricing geopolitical supply disruption risk. This stagflationary setup pressures both growth assets and duration, explaining crypto's -1.4% decline despite dollar strength remaining modest at 99.00. Energy sector leadership likely persists while tech faces multiple headwinds.

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Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
Live Book Positioning — conviction scores, instrument views, entry context

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