April 02, 2026Risk-OffHigh Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Risk assets diverge sharply as oil's +7.79% surge signals supply shock concerns while crypto plunges into extreme fear territory.

BTC$66,351-3.1%

ETH$2,036-4.4%

SOL$78.98-5.2%

Fear & Greed12Extreme Fear

VIX26.81+9.3%

DXY100.20+0.6%

US 10Y4.320%+0.2%

Gold$4,641-3.0%

Oil (WTI)$107.92+7.8%

S&P 5006,575+0.7%

RegimeRisk-Off

ConvictionHigh

Analysis

Oil Shock Dominates Cross-Asset Dynamics

Crude's violent +7.79% spike to $107.92 overwhelms risk sentiment, driving 10Y yields +19bp to 4.32% and DXY +55bp to 100.20. This energy-driven stagflation setup explains why equities (+0.72% SPX, +1.16% NDX) remain resilient while rate-sensitive assets collapse. Energy supply disruption is the macro fulcrum today.

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Cross-asset analysis (4 sections)
Thematic Outlook — Constructive, Cautious, Monitoring, Key Risk
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