March 31, 2026TransitionalMedium Conviction

Daily Macro Risk Pulse

Risk assets are staging a relief rally as yields fall and volatility compresses, but extreme fear in crypto and elevated VIX at 26 suggest fragility remains.

BTC$67,679+1.5%

ETH$2,099+3.1%

SOL$82.66-0.2%

Fear & Greed11Extreme Fear

VIX26.35-13.9%

DXY99.97-0.5%

US 10Y4.310%-0.7%

Gold$4,694+3.7%

Oil (WTI)$101.55-1.3%

S&P 5006,505+2.5%

RegimeTransitional

ConvictionMedium

Analysis

Risk Rally Broadens Despite Fragile Foundation

SPX surged 2.54% while NDX ripped 3.51%, coinciding with 10-year yields falling 71bps to 4.31%. VIX collapsed 13.92% to 26.35 but remains elevated above the 20 comfort zone. The rally looks relief-driven rather than fundamental, with positioning likely light given recent stress.

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